Week 1 August Forecast Discussion: Heating Up for Rally

SUNDAY FORECAST DISCUSSION AND BLOG

WEEK 1 AUGUST FORECAST DISCUSSION
They are coming….
Bear Butte soaks in the absolutely gorgeous weather in the Black Hills as we transition from late July into early August. It’s not absolutely unheard of to have these cool snaps during the apex of summer, but it certainly signals oddities in the overall pattern and is worth paying attention to.
“Unusual weather usually means more unusual weather.”
We will be bouncing up and down over the next week, with dry conditions through Monday turning into a chance for severe weather on Tuesday, then back to warming and drying conditions Wednesday through Friday, before going right back in an unsettled pattern. Why? Aren’t we usually cooking at 90° for weeks at a time by August? Where’s the consistency?
The jet stream is a dominating feature of our weather patterns – the reason I obsess over it so much is because it holds the key to understanding the X factor of why things go off the rails here.
Things are much cooler than normal. The jet stream is a roller coaster right now in late summer….. not particularly usual…
By this time, the jet stream has usually formed a giant dome, avoiding the northern plains at any cost and more like a single giant mountain rather than a roller coaster. This allows heat and high pressure to build like a pressure cooker in the central portion of the country. That’s why we usually see 90s and even 100s this time of year with little rain. (Save for the random thunderstorm that explodes out of the pressure cooker and drops bowling ball hail once a week or so)
The fact that our temperatures are so cool is a good hint that there’s a disturbance in the force. Climatology will fight back, and try and take back its rightful place as the heat dome of late summer. Same principle goes if we were to shoot up to 110 for a day or two, the more out of wack things seem, the more likely there will be meteorological whiplash to follow.
When the climate fights with itself, storms win. The constant back and forth between competing air masses produces fronts, boundaries, fluctuating temperatures and unsettled conditions.
Latest guidance suggests that as we end this week going into next week, the roller coaster will continue.
The moral of the story….. this is going to be a very suspect forecast for next week. It’s going to change. A lot. With no consistency to the jet stream, it’s going to be very difficult to use confident language when talking about this coming weekend or next week. So, for those hoping for a really in-depth look at the forecast for rally week, we’re going to have to wait this out until the last minute.
Meteorologists will not be popular.
There is no suggestion of severe weather in the long range. That’s the good news. Temperatures may even start on the cooler side to start rally weekend. Or not. Maybe somewhere inbetween? this is what I’m talking about.
By about Wednesday/Thursday of this week we’ll get a much better idea of what rally week could look like.
Keep an eye on Tuesday for some stronger stuff, but otherwise things are looking very manageable this week. Maybe a few 90s for Rapid City by Thursday.
Remember. Be safe. Check your blind spot. Share the road. Respect personal space. All that good jazz. Have a great Sunday.
Brant